Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 22:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 54th strongest of the 159 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 18 July 2026. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued July 21 at 5:05PM EDT until July 21 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Upton NY
Urban PEI: 550,887 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- August 8, 2026 · score 48 · 7.7 km
- July 18, 2026 · score 48 · 10.6 km
- August 3, 2026 · score 37 · 10.7 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.9348, -74.3001 |
| Nearest City | Toms River (9 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 550.9K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T21:05:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Special Marine Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.407ccc4f6c93e934095615dc82360dbf |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-21T21:05:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-21T21:27:08.877Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | New York Harbor; Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM; Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River; Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY; Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued July 21 at 5:05PM EDT until July 21 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Upton NY |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T18:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Upton NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 6 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.407ccc4f6c93e934095615dc82360dbfe559e77d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0b488ed169b3d682d97b06e2bfa04a24219f96ac.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bf88b3ef4638a1971d6e70c58c2b02851f696073.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7195651c72d716a15c37172bd0f697a01c5d8b3e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.82d0cb73ab5173e17ee3656c601cc817a61732a6.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.99f4d04cbb6d91577f4cf11a1406490011a3ca51.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
Want to know when something happens near Toms River?